11 Percent Unemployment?

I'm going to make an economic prediction - hey why not, everybody else does!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics July report puts the unemployment rate at 9.5% after a July net loss of 131,000 non-farm jobs. The private sector is credited with creating 71,000 jobs while government (at all levels) shed 59,000 jobs. The total government loss was 202,000 but 143,000 of them were temporary census workers. So the structural drop in government employment is 59,000 jobs.

The drop in government jobs reflects the budget cutting going on mostly at the state and local level to balance budgets. In New Jersey, we have seen it at the state level as this year was the first year I ever recall the state balancing the budget. At the local level, it seems that every town in the state is cutting payrolls to balance their budgets. This, by the way, has led to almost daily reports in the papers about what jobs were eliminated in what towns. In Morris Township, our budget was balanced in part by eliminating 16 positions and furloughing various groups of employees (essentially cutting their number of paid days in the year). The cuts hit all departments, including fire services, road maintenace, etc.

For fans of smaller government, this means that the economic crisis is a dream come true. State and local governments are getting smaller and services are being eliminated. It's just a matter of time before the same occurs at the Federal level. Also, since most (perhaps all) economists are predicting a long slow recovery in terms of job creation, I would expect unemployment to stay high as any growth in the private sector is likely to be matched or exceeded with declines in the public sector.

One thing that is unclear to me is the effect of the "Stimulus" of 2009 on the unemployment rate. The Congressional Budget Office has a wide range in it's calculation of how many jobs have been saved. But, I think that it's safe to say that the jobs being saved are in the private sector. After all, when they put stimulus dollars into fixing a road or funding a new industry, it is private sector contractors that get the government contracts to do the work. The range of CBO estimates is currently a low of 1.4 million jobs and a high of 3.4 million jobs. So how has that affected the unemployment rate?

The 9.5% unemployment rate is based on a count of 14.6 million people seeking jobs. Without the stimulus, this number would range from a low of 16 million to a high of 18 million, depending on which calculation of jobs saved is correct. Let's split the difference and say 17 million. If there had been no stimulus, then, the unemployment rate would be approximately 11%. Since all of the stimulus "projects" I have seen are of limited duration - once the road is built, the job goes away - it's effect on employment will diminish over time. Therefore, I would predict that unemployment will rise toward the 11% mark unless the private economy can get more steam without this government support.

Isn't that a cheery thought! BB

Stieg Larsson is an Addiction

I'm not much of a fiction reader but I thought I'd write a quick review and warn you all to stay away from Stieg Larsson. The last of the "Dragon Tattoo" series came out recently, but naturally, I hadn't read the first two so I paid no attention. However, my voracious novel-reading daughter insisted that I read "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo". I put it off as long as possible, but while flying back from France, I was stuck with an 8 hour block of time so I started it. By the time the plane landed, I was hooked. I read that book straight through and then went immediately to the second book "Girl who Played with Fire" and read that like a man possessed. Finally, I begged a copy of "Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest" from a friend and just finished it. The main characters in the book are, each in their own way, obsessive and if you read these books, you too will become obsessed - obsessed with reading more. The novels are at times creepy and disgusting but always intriguing - a bit of "Silence of the Lambs" here, a little "Bourne Identity" there. And, in some cases, there are so many characters, you'll be tempted to take notes!

But - if you decide to read them, be warned: you will stop bathing and shaving, you will leave the dishes in the sink and eat only sparingly, your family will become just background noise and the mail will remain unopened in the box. You will simply sit there reading into the wee hours until you've read every word! In short, Stieg Larsson is an addiction.

But I have my life back now...

Paris

After our week in London, we took the train through the "chunnel" to Paris. It's a very easy ride and only takes about 3 hours. Along the way, you see some very nice French countyside.

We had (again) a very nice hotel in Paris and in a very nice (upscale) neighborhood, about 5 blocks north of the Louvre. Paris is very beautiful and very walkable. In fact, it's so beautiful that my favorite thing to do was often just to wander around. We took in the major sites and quite a few lesser ones as well. I could have stayed another week. Also, I kicked the rust off my college french and enjoyed speaking with anyone willing to speak a little more slowly than usual so that I could understand them. There were, however, plenty of people who spoke english so I don't think there was much of a language barrier.

Parisien life is decidedly later than London life. In London, the pubs are hopping every day from about 5 pm to 8 pm. The crowds always spilled out onto the sidewalk, where you are allowed to bring your drink. Anytime you saw a crowd on the street at that time, you knew you were passing a pub. In Paris, I didn't see much of a happy hour crew. But, from about 9 pm to 11 pm, the cafes were full. As they do during the rest of the day, people re-arrange the sidewalk chairs to all face the street so they can chat while watching the world go by. We enjoyed doing the same.

Paris also has incredibly good bread and chocolate! The boulangerie (bakery) near our hotel sold fresh baguettes every morning for 0.88 euros (about $1.25). I did notice, however, that in less trendy neighborhoods, a baguette was closer to 0.80 euros. We could make up sandwiches for the 4 of us with one baguette. So, we bought sandwich fixings and made ourselves lunches to eat in the park as we toured around. Eating in the park was fun as you get to soak in more of everyday goings-on (like the sand castle building contest we saw a kindergarten-age class do in the park directly adjacent to Notre Dame!)

We were in Paris over the Bastille Day holiday (their 4th of July) and caught the fireworks at the Eiffel Tower. We walked back to the hotel, down the Champs Elysee after midnite, and the place was hopping! It was a long walk, as traffic was snarled and no cabs were to be found anyway, but it was so pretty that no one cared.

So, although we had to leave a few museums and a few neighborhoods unexplored, we enjoyed the visit quite a bit. And, I am told, we missed quite a heat wave while we were away!

London

No, this picture is neither a political statement nor a comment on my ability to follow directions! Last week we returned from a trip to Europe with the kids. We started with a week in London (and a side trip to Birmingham) and then went to Paris for a week. The weather was great and we got a chance to see a lot of the sites.

London was a lot of fun for the family. We have friends there who have kids around our kids' ages so they got to hang out. It also turned out that a friend of ours was there for the week (for work) in the same hotel - so we spent some time with her, too. I've been to London a number of times before so I was happy to be able to share some of the things I like about the city with the kids. The only down note of the week in London was that I picked up some kind of virus and ran a high fever. As a result, I spent the last three days there at the hotel, sleeping a lot.

But I did meet a very nice doctor who was a referral from the hotel front desk. He is in private practice in the neighborhood where we stayed (South Kensington). He also had the most elegant doctor's office I've ever been in - in a classic South Ken browstone. We got a chance to talk a little bit about medical care in the US and the States. Also, as a point of comparison, my office visit with him cost L105 which, at current exchange rates is about $170. That's probably pretty comparable to the states for a doctor visit in a large city I would think.

Since I couldn't really go out sight-seeing, I would just take a walk in the neighborhood or sit in the park (Kensington Park) and read the paper until I felt fatigued again and went back to the hotel. These lttle walks were rather interesting though, because I got to see some of the "regular" London life, albeit in an upscale part of town. One day I watched the procession of girls from a school in their uniforms (lavendar floral dresses, knee socks and matching jackets) go in groups to the church across the street for what appeared to be the end-of-year ceremonies. Each group would go in for about 15 minutes and upon return some would be carrying trophies of various sizes. In one case, a couple of girls came out crying (and trophy-less) and I wonder whether they had their heart set on some award which they did not win.

I also overheard a funny item between some American tourists. While sitting in Kensington Park near the Albert memorial, an American couple strolled by. The Albert Memorial is huge, with scenes from far off lands, like Indian elephants, African scenes and American bison, carved at the four corners of it's base. The woman stopped to take a picture when the man said "You already got that one." She replied "I did?" "Yes", he said "You know, it's the memorial to what-his-name...see, there's that college of... whatever in the background. You know the one they stopped working on back in...whenever." "Oh, yeah" she said. And she put her camera away. Now that's communicating!

First Chemo-Holiday Scan

Last week I had my first scan since coming off the drugs and then had a check up with Dr. S to go over the results. My CEA is up a bit and I had about the same amount of growth as I had last time, which was my last 2 months on treatment. So, it looks like the growth rate is the same with or without the meds. My total tumor volume is now just under it's original starting point. So we decided to stay on holiday for another two months and then do another scan in mid-August.

As for side effects, everything has cleared up except for the exhaustion. I'm still wiped out most of the time. Dr. S said that this is not unusual since I was in treatment for a long time. I will go in again in a month to see him and if I am still having fatigue issues, he could prescribe something (an energy pill?). In the meantime, good diet and regular exercise...

On a side note, in the subway coming home, there was a guy playing the stand-up bass. Curiously, the tune he seemed to be playing was "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas". So, he's either six months early, six months late or has a very limited repertoire! Or my hearing is off....

Happy Father's Day! BB

Baseball Trip

So after my turn on the soapbox, I went down to Baltimore to catch some baseball with my brother. We saw the Yanks beat the Orioles 4 -2 on Wednesday night at Camden Yards. Still a very nice stadium - and no wonder it set the standard for most stadiums built today. Thursday we went into DC to see the Nationals beat the Pirates, also 4 -2. The Nats have a brand new stadium and it's also very nice. It was great to spend some time with Kevin and to feed my baseball addiction!

Soapbox

Everyone should get an opportunity once in their life to stand on the soapbox in town square and make a political speech. I had mine last weekend. Last March, I heard about a group called “Coffee Party”. The name is a take-off on Tea Party but the agenda was about civil public discourse and moderation rather than a particular point of view. I looked to see if there was a meeting in my area and when I found none, I posted an invitation online. The location was a local coffee shop. Sixty people came. We decided to meet again the following month and 100 people came. The group identified five issues they were concerned about. They also wanted to set up regular monthly meetings. So, a committee of volunteers was formed.

At the next meeting, in May, the group wanted to go “public” with a rally on the Morristown Green. For the rally, three topics were selected – Wall Street Reform, Campaign Finance Reform and Bipartisanship. We held the rally last Saturday. We had a speaker on Wall Street Reform who did an excellent job of summarizing the roots of the financial crisis of 2008 and reviewing what the proposed “reform” bills say. This was a bit depressing since the proposed reform bills don’t really seem to address the issues. Next, we had a former congressional candidate from our district discuss issues related to fundraising when running for Congress and ways to improve transparency and honesty. And last, one of our local mayors spoke about working together – he is a Democratic mayor in a Republican town.

I did a short introductory speech on the role of government as laid out in the Preamble of the Constitution (as evidence of our Founders’ original intent). I was also interviewed on NJ cable news – a three minute interview that became a sound bite on that night’s news.

So now I’ve had my 15 minutes in politics. It was enough for me! But there is something purely American about speaking in your town’s square. Here’s my campaign photo…BB